Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220330 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.70     82.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.0  29.3  32.4  39.1  38.6  42.4  43.2  45.5  U  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.6  96.6  96.6  98.5 100.5 102.4 100.5 100.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0 -14.0 -16.0 -28.0  -3.0   8.0  26.0  41.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   31.0  35.0  36.0  37.0  45.0  48.0  46.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons