Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220330 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.50     82.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  35.0  39.3  38.0  38.4  38.5  38.6  37.3  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  11.0  16.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.6  99.8 101.6 101.6 105.5 107.4 107.4 113.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0   2.0  -1.0   5.0  12.0   2.0  26.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   34.0  37.0  39.0  41.0  39.0  43.0  44.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons