Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220331 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.30     83.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.5  39.3  39.6  36.3  36.9  39.3  39.1  36.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  10.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.8  99.8  99.8  99.8  99.8 105.5 103.5 105.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0 -13.0   7.0  18.0  -4.0 -13.0  -7.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  42.0  45.0  49.0  46.0  48.0  48.0  50.0 VU VU VU  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons