Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220331 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.50     83.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.5  40.1  40.0  38.3  44.4  45.0  46.1  44.3  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   7.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.6  96.6  96.6  96.6  98.5 100.5 104.4 104.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0   0.0  16.0  15.0  -2.0  18.0  15.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  43.0  45.0  44.0  46.0  45.0  53.0  55.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -8.0 -10.0 -19.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons