Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220331 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.60     84.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.2  43.4  44.5  47.7  48.1  50.7  47.3  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   7.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.0  88.0  89.8  91.6  95.5 101.5  97.4 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  10.0   7.0  11.0  31.0  16.0  36.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  39.0  40.0  43.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons