Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220401 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.30     84.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.2  47.6  46.9  47.6  53.6  47.2  49.9  45.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  14.0  14.0  13.0  13.0  19.0  19.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.5 103.5 103.5 103.5 109.4 113.6 111.5 117.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0 -12.0  16.0   4.0  18.0 -10.0 -10.0 -42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  43.0  40.0  37.0  37.0  41.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -7.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons