Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220401 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.20     84.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.8  48.3  52.4  58.8  53.0  62.7  53.5  50.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  13.0  17.0  11.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.0 103.0 104.8 108.5 114.4 114.4 118.6 106.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  18.0  11.0  10.0  11.0 -20.0 -38.0 -38.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  40.0  41.0  39.0  39.0  37.0  39.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons