Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220402 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.00     84.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.0  51.1  57.6  54.4  48.4  53.9  44.1  40.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   5.0   8.0  17.0  15.0  12.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8 106.6 108.5 112.4 114.4 114.4 112.4 120.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  18.0  20.0  23.0  30.0  -2.0 -10.0 -26.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  40.0  38.0  37.0  37.0  41.0  35.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons