Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220402 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.90     85.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.7  59.5  61.1  57.5  59.2  53.1  45.8  37.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   1.0   5.0  14.0  17.0  12.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.6 106.6 106.6 108.5 114.4 114.4 116.5 112.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0   9.0  33.0   3.0  23.0   3.0  -6.0 -37.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  39.0  39.0  38.0  40.0  39.0  38.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -6.0  -3.0  -6.0  -4.0  -7.0  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons