Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220402 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.80     84.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        58.2  60.2  60.0  60.1  57.1  50.0  44.9  38.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   5.0   8.0  10.0   6.0   7.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.6 106.6 108.5 110.5 112.4 108.5 116.5 104.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0   6.0  -9.0 -14.0   7.0 -19.0 -27.0 -30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  37.0  37.0  41.0  42.0  39.0  38.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -6.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  -4.0  -5.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons