Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220403 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.10     83.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        53.4  57.4  60.6  52.5  41.0  35.0  34.8  38.7 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   6.0   7.0   5.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.2 106.2 109.8 111.6 113.5 119.4 113.5 104.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  17.0 -10.0 -12.0  10.0 -25.0 -10.0 -32.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  35.0  37.0  32.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -14.0 -15.0 -11.0 -10.0  -8.0  -7.0  -6.0  F VF VF  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons