Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220403 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.10     83.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        55.8  61.2  54.4  49.5  45.9  45.6  46.8  52.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   3.0   8.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.0 109.8 111.6 111.6 106.2 108.0 101.0  97.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   6.0 -13.0   2.0   6.0  -4.0 -15.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  43.0  45.0  41.0  39.0  34.0  41.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -6.0  -6.0  -8.0   1.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons