Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222022 220403 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.50     81.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        51.4  43.6  42.6  45.7  52.5  54.7  62.9  81.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0  12.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.5 115.5 111.6 113.5 108.0 101.0  99.3  97.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0  -5.0 -10.0 -28.0   1.0   7.0  49.0  81.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  38.0  35.0  37.0  38.0  46.0  50.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons