Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232022 220404 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.80    162.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  29.0  33.2  38.4  35.7  37.3  44.1  45.5  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  38.0  34.0  34.0  25.0   9.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 113.6 105.5  91.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   137.0 134.0 155.0 110.0  27.0  52.0  98.0  66.0 VF VF VF  F  U  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  67.0  63.0  64.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -6.0  -7.0 -15.0 -17.0 -13.0 -28.0 -16.0  N  F  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        3.6%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h       17.9%       25.2%       21.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.6%        9.7%        8.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%        9.7%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        9.7%        5.5%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       19.3%       12.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.8%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        5.3%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        4.1%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        4.4%        2.9%