Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232022 220404 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    162.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  32.3  36.0  34.0  31.0  34.8  37.9  40.5  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  34.0  29.0  24.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 124.3 122.0 115.1 102.4  96.6  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   143.0 150.0 102.0  41.0  24.0  79.0  56.0  25.0 VF VF  F  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  68.0  71.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -11.0 -17.0 -24.0 -22.0 -42.0 -35.0 -30.0  F  F VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.4%        5.0%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h       20.2%       29.5%       24.8%
 30kt / 24h        7.9%       13.1%       10.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%       13.1%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%       13.0%        8.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.3%       21.6%       14.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.0%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.0%        5.1%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        5.0%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        5.2%        2.7%