Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232022 220404 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.90    161.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  38.6  36.5  36.5  29.6  42.2  36.8  45.3  U  U  U  U  N VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  24.0  17.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.3 117.0 112.3 107.9  99.4  86.2  76.1  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   151.0  91.0  65.0  43.0  51.0  77.0  57.0   4.0 VF  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  63.0  63.0  58.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -11.0 -21.0 -16.0 -15.0 -21.0 -21.0 -12.0  F  F VF VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.5%        2.3%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       11.7%        9.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        4.0%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        4.0%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        4.0%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%        7.3%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%