Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232022 220405 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    160.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.4  40.8  37.8  38.6  40.0  50.5  52.9  46.9 VU VU  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  30.0  23.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 117.0 112.3 110.1  99.4  89.8  79.3  71.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  47.0  21.0  60.0  82.0  50.0 -17.0 -22.0  F  N  U  N  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  66.0  65.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -17.0 -16.0 -13.0  -6.0 -16.0 -24.0 -15.0  F VF VF VF  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        0.7%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        4.2%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.2%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%