Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232022 220405 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.30    161.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  23.9  24.1  24.3  26.5  20.9  22.5  25.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  35.0  30.0  30.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 110.1 101.5  88.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  67.0  77.0  31.0  25.0  47.0  61.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -5.0  -7.0  -7.0  -9.0  -5.0 -12.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        1.7%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.6%       14.5%       10.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        6.2%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        6.0%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        6.0%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%        8.2%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        3.9%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        3.3%        2.2%