Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232022 220405 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.70    161.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.0  39.8  37.9  41.2  49.1  54.0  51.5  49.5 VU  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  10.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.6 105.1  98.6  96.5  84.8  77.7  81.2  81.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  41.0  33.0  45.0  43.0  36.0  -3.0   4.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  66.0  64.0  67.0  74.0  68.0  66.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   0.0  11.0   6.0 -10.0 -15.0 -10.0 -10.0  F  N  U  N  F VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        1.2%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        4.2%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%