Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232022 220405 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.70    162.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.1  36.3  40.4  42.0  40.2  43.8  42.6  45.9  U  U  U VU  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  12.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.3 105.1  92.4  77.7  77.7  77.7  83.0  81.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  36.0  65.0  68.0  31.0 -18.0 -24.0 -15.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  71.0  68.0  72.0  68.0  65.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0  -1.0  -8.0 -15.0 -21.0 -10.0 -24.0  N  N  N  F VF VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        1.7%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        4.3%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%