Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232022 220406 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.50    162.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.5  40.6  44.1  47.7  45.7  42.2  45.6  54.2  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.9  87.4  76.2  72.7  67.7  69.3  69.3  69.3  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  48.0  68.0  59.0 -20.0 -21.0  -6.0  23.0  N  N  N  N VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  67.0  71.0  67.0  62.0  60.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -8.0  -8.0 -15.0 -15.0 -21.0 -20.0 -24.0  N  F  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.4%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.2%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons