Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232022 220406 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80    163.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  38.8  40.7  40.9  36.4  31.9  37.0  51.8  U  U VU VU  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.5  78.0  85.5  76.2  72.7  72.7  74.4  74.4  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  49.0  43.0  20.0   0.0 -13.0  15.0   3.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -5.0  -7.0 -12.0  -7.0   0.0   7.0  29.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.5%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons