Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232022 220406 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.70    163.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.4  39.4  40.0  38.5  33.5  36.7  45.3  60.2 VU  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.0  83.5  76.2  72.7  72.7  71.0  71.0  67.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  29.0  21.0  14.0 -10.0  13.0  23.0  16.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  62.0  52.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -7.0 -12.0 -10.0 -12.0  -1.0   9.0  20.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons