Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232022 220407 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.60    164.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.3  43.6  41.5  35.2  49.4  53.3  64.2  68.8  U VU VU  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.3  77.7  79.4  79.4  72.7  69.6  72.7  71.1  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  25.0   2.0  -6.0  -9.0  31.0   4.0  10.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  72.0  66.0  60.0  53.0  48.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -20.0 -26.0 -25.0 -21.0  -6.0   2.0  23.0   6.0 VF VF VF VF  F  N VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons