Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232022 220407 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.80    165.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.3  50.5  48.9  45.6  51.4  67.6  69.7  61.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.0  71.5  71.5  73.0  77.7  73.0  61.7  50.9  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  -7.0  -7.0  28.0 -11.0  21.0  73.0 114.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  63.0  59.0  51.0  54.0  57.0  66.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -27.0 -21.0 -19.0  -2.0  12.0  -6.0 -34.0 -42.0 VF VF VF  N  U  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons