Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232022 220411 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -26.70    170.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        68.3  62.7  55.7  58.3  65.6  75.3  81.6  76.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.0  74.3  67.7  59.1  49.7  38.7  33.9  28.7  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0 154.0 133.0 188.0  71.0 138.0 109.0  61.0  F VF VF VF  N VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  64.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  53.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 -22.0  -6.0   5.0  27.0  23.0  68.0 120.0 VF VF  F  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons