Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220424 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.50     40.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.8  30.7  31.8  33.2  30.7  34.3  33.4  37.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  44.0  39.0  35.0  23.0  17.0  14.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 115.7  94.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  81.0  40.0   7.0 -18.0  -6.0  12.0  -5.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  59.0  56.0  46.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0  -7.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   2.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        1.9%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%       15.3%       10.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        5.6%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        5.2%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        5.2%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%       15.2%        8.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.6%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        4.0%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.9%        1.4%