Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220424 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.90     39.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.8  33.3  33.4  33.5  38.5  38.5  49.2  49.4  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  38.0  33.0  24.0  13.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 122.0 108.6  76.5  60.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  51.0  32.0  -9.0 -18.0  15.0  -7.0 -10.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  57.0  56.0  51.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  -2.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        1.7%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%       10.9%        7.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        3.5%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        3.5%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        3.5%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        7.3%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%