Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220424 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.40     39.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.9  35.8  28.9  27.7  37.5  40.3  49.6  51.8  U  U  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  35.0  30.0  22.0  13.0   8.0   9.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 122.0 117.3 117.3  89.4  37.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  37.0 -11.0 -34.0   9.0  25.0  13.0  38.0  N  N  U VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  49.0  39.0  36.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -8.0   0.0   1.0  -5.0   4.0   6.0  10.0 VF  F  N  N  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.8%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        6.9%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.1%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        2.1%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        4.1%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%