Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220424 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.20     39.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.3  31.9  29.5  36.9  39.2  44.6  38.2  51.4  U  U  N  U  U VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  24.0  22.0  13.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 109.6 105.1 105.1  94.4  28.4  84.8  N  N  N  N  N  N VU  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0   4.0  -1.0 -12.0  19.0 -16.0  -1.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  52.0  48.0  42.0  39.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -5.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   6.0   6.0   8.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.6%        3.7%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.9%       14.6%       10.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%        7.0%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        7.0%        4.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%        6.7%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        7.4%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.1%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%