Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220425 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.00     39.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  32.3  36.1  40.7  43.5  47.2  49.9  53.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  21.0  16.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 109.6 105.1 102.9 105.1  68.0  30.0  90.5  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0 -14.0   3.0  23.0  11.0   0.0  -4.0  -9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  45.0  38.0  U  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   4.0   6.0  18.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%        2.1%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        5.8%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        2.2%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        2.2%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        2.2%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%