Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220425 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.10     39.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.0  32.0  32.6  34.1  45.6  40.8  45.7  53.5  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  20.0  16.0  14.0   9.0   0.0  21.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 112.0 114.3 114.3  72.7  10.5  79.4  90.5  N  N  N  N  U VU  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0  -3.0   1.0  17.0   9.0   0.0 -12.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  48.0  37.0  37.0  35.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  15.0  23.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.1%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.2%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.0%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.0%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%