Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220425 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.10     40.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.4  33.2  33.4  33.6  39.7  34.5  44.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  24.0  20.0  12.0   0.0   8.0  11.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 119.3 117.0  91.6  20.7  86.2  93.5  99.4  N  N  N  N VU  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0   9.0  10.0  11.0  19.0  -1.0  -6.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  47.0  41.0  41.0  42.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0   0.0   6.0  10.0   9.0  10.0  12.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%