Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220426 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.60     41.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  34.9  33.8  34.9  40.6  54.0  50.5  43.7  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  20.0  22.0  38.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        109.6 105.1  84.8  47.0  81.2  88.5  90.5  94.4  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0   6.0  28.0  26.0   2.0 -11.0 -19.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  49.0  46.0  44.0  36.0  34.0  33.0  36.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  11.0  12.0   9.0   0.0  19.0  10.0   7.0  N  U  U  U  N VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.7%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons