Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220426 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.80     42.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  38.2  38.7  44.8  52.0  54.1  41.8  36.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  10.0  34.0  42.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         94.4  65.0  25.4  17.3  86.6  90.5  92.4  96.5  N  U VU VU  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  24.0  22.0  14.0   3.0 -22.0  -7.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  48.0  43.0  38.0  35.0  30.0  33.0  38.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  11.0   4.0  -1.0  16.0  13.0   8.0   2.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons