Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220426 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.30     43.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  30.3  32.3  37.0  47.6  43.4  33.6  27.2  U  N  U  U VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0  15.0  30.0  41.0  42.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         29.1   8.7  19.7  72.7  85.5  87.4  93.6 110.0 VU VU VU  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  10.0   6.0  22.0  -8.0 -22.0  -5.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  37.0  37.0  35.0  36.0  40.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   9.0   4.0  -3.0  13.0   7.0   7.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons