Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220426 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.50     44.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.4  36.0  37.3  48.7  50.1  44.0  40.6  35.8  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   8.0   8.0  14.0  16.0  11.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.9  47.0  84.8  88.5  90.5  92.4  96.5  94.4  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0   9.0  25.0  17.0 -20.0  -3.0 -15.0  -4.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  36.0  36.0  42.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0   1.0  -3.0  13.0   7.0   5.0   0.0  -3.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons