Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220427 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.80     45.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.3  42.2  50.0  54.5  51.5  42.9  36.3  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   8.0   8.0  11.0  14.0  15.0  10.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.0  99.8 103.5 103.5 105.5 109.4 113.6 120.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  33.0  24.0  -6.0 -10.0  -4.0  -1.0   4.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  34.0  37.0  32.0  30.0  34.0  39.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  12.0  17.0  20.0  11.0   4.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  U  U VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons