Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220427 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.80     47.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.2  47.3  50.4  47.2  39.5  33.1  30.7  27.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  15.0  20.0  28.0  36.0  41.0  40.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        109.8 111.6 113.5 115.5 115.5 121.5 137.0 139.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  24.0  -6.0 -31.0   2.0 -12.0  10.0 -19.0  N  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  33.0  37.0  30.0  35.0  38.0  43.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  15.0  16.0  12.0   5.0  -1.0  -6.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons