Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220427 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.30     49.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.9  57.3  52.6  52.1  44.9  41.3  45.2  42.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  21.0  24.0  28.0  39.0  42.0  40.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        106.6 108.5 110.5 110.5 112.4 114.4 103.0  40.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0   2.0 -26.0 -10.0   4.0   3.0  20.0   2.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   34.0  36.0  32.0  28.0  30.0  34.0  39.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  21.0  17.0  19.0  11.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  U VU  U VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons