Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220427 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.10     51.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        55.8  59.4  57.3  55.5  49.7  48.6  65.8  65.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  19.0  23.0  28.0  39.0  39.0  33.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8 106.6 110.5 110.5 112.4 110.5 108.5 106.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0 -30.0 -18.0 -15.0  -1.0  29.0   1.0   4.0  U VU  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  35.0  30.0  30.0  33.0  38.0  36.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.0  22.0  21.0  14.0   2.0  -3.0 -12.0 -14.0 VU VU VU  U  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons