Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220428 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.00     52.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        69.2  64.1  61.0  62.6  62.9  67.3  75.0  76.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  17.0  21.0  27.0  33.0  28.0   8.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8 106.6 110.5 110.5 110.5 108.5 104.8  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -40.0 -15.0  -5.0   0.0  -7.0  20.0  -4.0  21.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   28.0  29.0  30.0  29.0  28.0  35.0  40.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.0  19.0  15.0  10.0   0.0  -6.0 -17.0 -34.0 VU VU  U  U  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons