Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220428 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.40     53.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        64.0  62.8  62.6  50.5  66.9  67.2  67.4  71.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  36.0  36.0  39.0  36.0  29.0   6.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.5 117.4 117.4 117.4 115.5 113.5 109.8 102.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0   4.0  -9.0  -1.0  25.0  -9.0   2.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   33.0  31.0  30.0  32.0  38.0  45.0  45.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -6.0  -9.0   5.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons