Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220428 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.80     53.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        62.9  62.7  58.9  56.5  68.7  67.3  67.7  81.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  36.0  39.0  39.0  33.0  20.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.5 120.5 120.5 120.5 118.5 114.8 104.3  85.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0 -26.0 -10.0  45.0 -12.0 -26.0  11.0  17.0  U VU  U  N  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   29.0  29.0  31.0  33.0  38.0  42.0  45.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -7.0   0.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons