Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220429 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.60     52.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        67.2  66.4  74.4  77.1  80.5  83.4  84.6  60.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  27.0  23.0  14.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        111.6 109.8 108.0 104.4  93.0  67.7  49.1  33.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0  39.0   6.0 -11.0  -6.0  26.0  27.0  75.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   30.0  32.0  30.0  36.0  42.0  48.0  56.0  58.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -6.0 -11.0 -22.0  -6.0 -28.0  27.0  N  F  F  F VF  F VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons