Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242022 220429 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.80     52.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        68.9  72.4  80.0  76.1  82.6  89.8  74.8  59.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  23.0  15.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.8 108.0 104.4  99.3  77.9  50.4  53.4  45.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  10.0 -10.0  -2.0  38.0  41.0  31.0  41.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   30.0  31.0  34.0  37.0  46.0  54.0  51.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -7.0 -15.0 -19.0 -21.0  -8.0 -24.0  65.0  N  F VF VF VF  F VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons