Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252022 220509 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.50     90.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.8  33.9  34.9  38.5  42.4  61.5  67.4  68.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  27.0  20.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.0  92.9  86.5  78.5  64.3  56.5  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   105.0  87.0  75.0  70.0  27.0  45.0  42.0   8.0  F  F  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  53.0  45.0  41.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -14.0  -9.0  -9.0 -15.0 -11.0   2.0  25.0 VF VF  F  F VF  F  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        1.1%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%        4.1%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        1.6%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%