Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252022 220510 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40     91.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.7  41.8  57.3  62.3  89.7  90.6  78.3  56.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.0  64.3  53.6  41.7  35.9  48.0  59.6  67.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  19.0  31.0  35.0  14.0   4.0 -23.0 -20.0  N  U  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  59.0  61.0  55.0  44.0  38.0  41.0  39.0  U  U  N  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -12.0  -3.0  -7.0  16.0  15.0  26.0  21.0 VF  F  N  F  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons