Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252022 220511 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.60     93.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        76.7  80.7  75.2  75.7  54.2  45.6  33.7  36.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  20.0  27.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.3  55.5  67.2  74.6  86.2 105.7 119.3 120.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  33.0  15.0   6.0  -8.0  10.0  -8.0  -5.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  46.0  43.0  42.0  37.0  36.0  34.0  37.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0  26.0  24.0  26.0   7.0  -4.0  -9.0  N  N VU VU VU  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons