Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH252022 220511 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.10     95.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        70.9  73.7  58.7  58.6  41.2  40.4  35.3  28.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  16.0  27.0  33.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.2  73.0  81.0  86.2  99.4 112.3 120.0 120.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0   1.0 -22.0  10.0   3.0  -1.0  -9.0 -19.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  42.0  41.0  39.0  38.0  38.0  44.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  29.0  17.0  25.0  16.0   7.0  -3.0  -8.0  N VU  U VU  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons